The arrival of a new generation of video codecs designed for streaming-first media will disrupt the transcoding market substantially over the course of the next ten years says a report from analyst ReThink TV. The current battle over patent pools for the next generation H.266 (VVC) codec is damaging the rollout as well, says the report.
The next generation of codecs are set to be more costly, and this means that the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for video device royalties will grow 146 percent to $8.42bn in the next decade. Meanwhile the Servicable Obtainable Market (SOM) will grow to $7.62 billion in 2030. This means that patent pools will be collecting ever more royalties from the available market, with the total SOM reaching over 90 ercent of the TAM by the end of the period.
The ballooning size of device royalty payments is also exemplified by the flat rate of annual video device sales, which are going to slowly taper down to 2.61bn in 2030. Growing demand for smartphones and smart TVs will be offset by a flat market for games consoles, and shrinking demand for CTV devices, computers, tablets, set tops and non-smart televisions.
Despite the hype surrounding the capabilities of new technologies, the rise of codecs is directly linked to adoption by OEMS, which in turn is led by consumer demand for device capabilities. This means the rise of the next generation is going to be much slower than predicted, with large changes unlikely until the latter half of the decade says the report.